3.Trends and Drivers
The trends and drivers identified in Version 1.0 of the roadmap have been reviewed for Version 2.0 and have not changed significantly since it was published. A tabular format, Table 1, has been adopted here to show the summarised trends and drivers brought forward from Version 1.0 for completeness, including new items identified in the current review.
 
  Trends and drivers Queries Vision
Society
Growing demand for mobility
Congestion and pressure on infrastructure
Changing working and living patterns
Ageing population
Longer working life
Increased mobile and home working
More single person households
Continued growth of cities and towns
Consumer demand for greater variety, quality and performance of products and services
Increasing concern for health, safety and security
Increasing concerns about terrorism
Demographic shift in vehicle type and ownership patterns
Social attitudes towards transport and the environment

Continued growth of South East

Social attitudes to vehicle monitoring
Cheap, safe, convenient, comfortable, clean, secure and equitable road transport
Economy
Growth in economy and consumption
More trade and transport of goods
Congestion and pressure on infrastructure
£65bn of public and £56bn of private investment needed by 2010
Energy costs rise 2-3% per year
Stability of oil supplies
UK productivity lags competitors
Opportunities for high value products and services and financial markets stimulate increasingly networked global economy
Increasing gap between wealthy and poor
Fiscal and monetary policy
Impact of evolving European Union
Public vs. private finance

Will current trend continue

New entrant vehicle makers
Impact of environment and social opinion on economy and policy
Successful and sustainable road transport industry
Environment
Increasing global population and associated economic development
Increasing energy consumption and greenhouse gases Increasing burden of transport on environment
Reducing emissions as engines become more efficient and cleaner
Pressure to utilise material and energy more efficiently Opportunities for alternative energy sources and power systems
Opportunities for improved materials and processing technology
Impact of global warming, is it due to CO2, is the response adequate?
How long will oil and gas supplies last
Social attitudes to environment andimpact on business and government policy
Environmentally sustainable road transport system
Technology
Opportunities for innovations in fuel, engine and power systems

Increasing performance of information & communications technology (speed, cost, size, functionality)
Opportunities for innovations in sensors, electronics, communications and control systems (vehicle & infrastructure)
Opportunities for innovations in materials (weight, strength, processing, intelligence
Opportunities for high value design, manufacturing and engineering services
How far can the internal combustion engine go
Which energy / power solutions will succeed in the long term
Moore’s law continues
Need for international standards
Disruptive technologies
Effective and appropriate technological innovation for road transport
Policy
Government initiatives, including ten year transport plan
UK, European, National and Industrial policy, standards and legislation
CO2, energy, emissions, recycling and carbon legislation
Role of UK in evolving and enlarging European Union
Social expectations for public services, transport system, environment, housing, etc
Streamlined planning process
Harmonisation of policy, standards and legislation
Impact of geopolitical trends and disruptions
Effective, integrated, consistent and sustainable road transport policy
Infrastructure
Increasing demand on transport system (passenger and freight

Large investment required to maintain and develop road and other transport infrastructure
Development of physical road and transport infrastructure
Development of information and communications infrastructure
Development of alternative energy distribution infrastructure
Development and harmonisation of standards
Role of public and private sectors
Privatisation of high maintenance cost roads

Impact of social, political and technology developments
Effective, integrated and sustainable road transport system
 
 
 
Foresight Vehicle Secretariat, c/o SMMT Ltd, Forbes House, Halkin Street, London, SW1X 7DS. Email: info@foresightvehicle.org.uk
Phone: 0845 009 38 38 Fax: 0845 009 39 39. Site Designed and Hosted in Partnership with PDC Ltd. Site Map. Copyright © SMMT 2006