There is a growing demand for mobility (passengers and goods), stimulated by economic growth and development, together with changes in lifestyles and working patterns. The road transport system plays a central role (80% of journeys are by car). Projected growth in GDP will have an attendant growth in traffic to sustain it. The 10 year plan predicted GDP growth rates of around 3% per year to 2010. Associated road traffic growth was predicted to increase by 20% in the 10 year period. As well as the developments in vehicles and their systems, there is a need for investment in road, rail and air infrastructure and technology if current congestion trends are to be countered and economic development assured.

The road transport system must satisfy the needs of many parts of society, including drivers, pedestrians, children, parents, employees and emergency services. The role of business and government is to satisfy the needs and aspirations of these groups, economically and with minimal impact on the environment. Living and working patterns are expected to change, with increasing mobile and home working enabled by improved information and communications. Less tolerant attitudes towards “bad” driving will influence the take-up of counter measures.

There is a need to anticipate and provide for demographic changes, such as an ageing population and growth of industrial and urban areas. The demand for housing is increasing, particularly in the South East, with 20% more houses required by 2020. Approximately a quarter of the population will be of retirement age by 2030. However, working life extension is anticipated because of pension issues which will impact on economic activity. Global population growth, combined with economic development, provides commercial opportunities whilst posing a threat to the environment.

There are about 3,500 road traffic deaths and 40,000 serious injuries in the UK each security year, with a significant social and economic impact (estimated to be 2% of GDP for Europe as a whole). This, combined with the high level of vehicle crime in the UK, has resulted in government and industry efforts to improve passenger and pedestrian safety and security. Increasing concerns about terrorism might influence attitudes towards vehicle and occupant monitoring. Social demand for improved health will encourage continuing efforts to reduce emissions and particulates.

The transport/automotive sector represent a significant proportion of GDP (transport is estimated to represent 10% of European GDP, with automotive accounting for 5.3% of UK GDP, employing 700,000 and responsible for £20bn annual exports). The annual cost of owning and running vehicles in the UK is £5bn, with an additional investment of £2bn in road construction and £0.5bn in vehicle research and development. In addition, congestion is estimated to cost the UK economy between £15-20bn each year. Significant investment in infrastructure is required over the next 10 years (Government 10-year plan includes funding levels of £65bn from public and £56bn from private sources). Government has a difficult task to achieve in providing sufficient infrastructure to achieve its GDP objectives and in optimising the use of that infrastructure. Taxation of road usage, offset by
other tax reductions, is likely to play an increasing part in efforts to tackle congestion and environmental problems.

Up to 80% of domestic freight is carried by road, although estimates are lower for Europe as a whole (44%). Increasing global production and trade mean that the demand for freight carried by road, air and sea could double in the next 10 years.

The UK has a vehicle manufacturing capacity of more than 1 million vehicles, with an engine manufacturing capacity of around 4 million units. Globalisation and consolidation trends continue, stimulated by financial markets and improvements in information and communications technology. The competitive pressure on volume and labour intensive manufacture will continue, with an increasing focus on services and high-value engineering. Success in global markets will require continual improvement to productivity and product development times for new vehicles, together with the development of new and innovative high value technologies and products.

Global population growth, combined with economic development, will provide both commercial opportunities and pressure on political systems and the environment. Increasing affluence, combined with new living and working patterns, will result in demand for improved variety, performance and quality of goods and services. Social disruption caused by an increasing wealth gap may have economic implications.